Questing.wiki

Probability tool

Drop Chance Calculator

See your odds of getting a drop, going dry, or reaching a target probability after repeated attempts.

Status
Published
Last verified
Model
Independent attempts
01

Your scenario

Enter the known drop rate and your number of attempts.

Target chance
Used to calculate how many attempts you need.
02

Your odds

Chance of at least one drop

63.40%

With a 1 in 100 drop rate across 100 attempts.

Chance of no drop36.60%Your risk of going dry
Chance of 2+ drops26.42%Two or more successes
Expected drops1.00An average, not a guarantee
Attempts for a 90% chance230 tries

At 230 attempts, your chance of at least one drop reaches 90.09%.

How it works

What this result means

The calculator uses the binomial probability model. For each attempt, it assumes the drop rate stays the same and the outcome does not affect the next attempt.

Chance of at least one drop1 − (1 − p)np is the chance per attempt; n is the number of attempts.